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Opinion polls

Excellent post on The Drum by Malcolm Farnsworth on polling…worth a read.

Galahs and Polls

  1. The Walrus
    June 23, 2010 at 5:39 PM

    I find it difficult to swallow that the actual dumping of the ETS did that much damage to the ALP from a Climate Change perspective. People/Media were rejoicing in Sydney as it meant some of the 45% electricity increases were not going to be levied by the pathetic State Govt.

    But they did see it also as just another dent in the credibility of the PM. And they did not believe in the compensation for the “poor” under the ETS as they got that line when the GST was introduced. And people are not willing to pay $1200 p.a. to fix the Climate. Probably only $300 pa max.Plus if you are in any State Govt housing 25% of any increase in your pension to “compensate” is automatically taken by the State Govt as rent. So you’d still be worse off

    Anyway a World Climate Solution (if we need one) will need to be introduced incredibly slowly so as to lessen the electoral backlash in any country you wish to nominate anywhere in the World. Probably 4% p.a. over 25 years. But that’s another subject.

    I’d love to see a federal opinion poll of decent sample size for NSW only. I reckon it would have the ALP caucus shitting themselves.

    It’s cost of living pressures. Don’t forget the increases in tobacco tax by the way as of around 14 smokers I have spoken to 10 are not going to vote for the ALP. I know that’s a paltry sample but it is also representative of radio and print opinions. In the mortgage belts of NSW rising interest rates without real wage rises are really hurting. The NSW economy is absolutely fucked at present with it being incredibly slow in retail/wholesale.

    Plus the media in Sydney are slowly painting a connect between the diabolical waste of money that the State Govt is guilty of with that of the Federal insulation and BER problems.

    Put simply…………….Labor Stinks and whether or not one agrees or disagrees with the Stimulus Packages the perception is what counts and the Federal Government/Rudd is so hopeless at communication that I see a steady clawback to the Lib Nats over coming months.

    Solution is to get Julia into the PMs seat so people don’t need to choose between Rudd and Abbott and watch the 25% Other Parties vote swell the ALP Primary.

    But………………its already probably too late.

    • June 24, 2010 at 8:50 AM

      How prophetic your post is Walrus…especially the last two paragraphs.

  2. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 9:23 AM

    It helps when you have a leading member of the NSW Right living next door and a member of the NSW Left across the road. I was loath to disclose that over at GT.

    We do have a couple of beers together from time to time and did so over the weekend.So you just need to put 2 and 2 together after talking to them.

    She will be the first PM since Billy Hughes to be born o/s Australia and if you live in Sydney it will seem like the girls run the joint.

    A Female GG
    A Female PM
    A Female Governor of NSW
    A Female Premier
    A Female Lord Mayor of Sydney

    • The Walrus
      June 24, 2010 at 9:24 AM

      Oh and just to add. The 2 guys from the ALP thought they had run out of time which is why I thought it was too late. Looks like the Gods smiled upon them.

      • June 24, 2010 at 9:37 AM

        It still shits me that a media beat-up based on nothing at all has basically come up as a self-fulfilling prophecy because these dickheads are nervous about keeping power.

  3. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 9:51 AM

    Nah……..there was a lot of internal polling done by the ALP over the last 2 weeks as per my neighbours. It was not just a media beat up.

    First prize will now go to the first coalition member who utters the immortal line……”Same Horse Different Jockey”


  4. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 9:53 AM

    Oh and my neighbours expected that Rudd will quit politics at next election to take up a diplomatic posting.

    That’s what was reportedly going to be offered to him.

    It was all very very planned

    • June 24, 2010 at 10:08 AM

      A bit OT, but I’ve noticed you’re a bit less antagonistic over here than you are on GT.
      Is that deliberate? You seem a bit more like you used to be on Blogocrats…

  5. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 10:41 AM

    You want a full explanation…………..?

    Well here you go……………

    I’d had a gutful of Nasking as a few weeks ago he slurred the memory of Singapore WW2 soldiers (my uncle was in Malaya and was evac’d out due to wounds) and he never apologized for it. He said they ran. In fact they surrendered because the stupid British Commander could not get his act together.

    Did Nasking come back to explain himself ? No……………. Just ignored it totally. As far as I was concerned the guy is a jerk with a typical condescending teacher’s attitude. So that annoyed me no end.

    I was, I believed, at the time just making gentle “jabs” at the Café concept. Perhaps I was a bit over the top.

    Then if I perceive myself as under a barrage of personal attack as from Nasking (who broke the peace by allowing KLs post) and previously from Miglo (who I think finally managed to hold the peace) then I’ll be very vicious.

    Add to that the fact that Shane was offended because I called him a “lunatic” (FFS it was the Gutter after all) then Possum came over to lecture us about RSPT and ran when I asked him if he thought the 40% rebate was politically sustainable, then Tom R when it got a bit tough decided he could not do simple maths………………………what the fuck is the use. Of course I’m going to get pissed off. No one sticks around to finish anything.

    Then Nasking allows KLs post to go up on the Café and then talks about how he agreed with it on GT of all places yet Reb allows that post to stay on GT………………….of course I’m going to be pissed off. That’s why it got very nasty at the end.

    Then you get Reb deciding that I’m the only one that needs moderation.

    Now I told him to ban me not moderate me. That’s why I told him it was not fair to just moderate me. Plus he actually edited some of my final posts rather than deleting them. That really pissed me off.

    Suddenly GT had lurched completely to the control of Nasking. And besides there had been a marked decrease in the number of “Right” wing comments by Tony and James and to an extent Neil. I think they might have grown tired of GT.

    So the Walrus was fucking furious by the end and to a degree I just wanted to push and push the limits to terminate my association with the joint.

    • June 24, 2010 at 11:12 AM

      Hmmmm…missed that exchange (the singapore soliders one anyway).

      To be honest I thought nas was being a touch precious about it, considering it was the gutter after all, but I did tend to agree with him a bit about the right dominance thing.

      I’d been lurking there a while before commenting a bit more and found that the righties did occasionally raise valid points and discussions, but tended to allow their own prejudices to cloud any criticism of their thesis…not that the lefties were not guilty of this as well. I just found the righties to be more strident in their refutations, usually ignoring any evidence provided and retreating to talking points and MSM beat-up slogans (TomM is a good one for this). I thought even the more rational righties like Tony and TomM were falling victim to this.

      But nas did bring it on himself a bit by forgetting where he was and taking the baiting a bit too seriously. I can understand his frustration with some really good discussions degenerating into talking point circle jerks after being highjacked, but reacting to trolling or baiting only serves to fan the flames.

  6. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 11:22 AM

    Right Dominating Left Dominating …..whatever.

    Very few of the Left would stick around. At least I’ll say one nice thing about Miglo……………when he and I fell out (always) and started a shouting match at least he’d hang around and stand toe to toe.

    Nasking just pisses off to the Café or Blogocrats and although I used to peer in there I refuse to post there. Besides my eyes get heavy just going to have a look……Yawn………….I’m sure I’d be blocked anyway.

    By the way I’m about to drop “The Walrus” and render the current email address inactive hence the “Butthole “ avatar. At some stage I’ll suddenly morph into a new ID. I think “The Walrus” has had its day.

    I just have yet to decide who/what to become

    • June 24, 2010 at 11:24 AM

      Good luck with that…you’re always welcome here.

  7. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 11:29 AM

    By the way. I actually dont consider myself a rusted on Rightie anyway. I actually vote for Rudd last election.

    I like many just grew to intensely dislike the guy and felt like I’d been duped. Voting for Abbott would have been an admission that I’d got it wrong.

    I’ll probably now give the ALP the benefit of the doubt and vote for them again.

    • June 24, 2010 at 11:34 AM

      I’ll still vote for them…Abbott is completely unsuited to higher office and the Liberals are a policy void.
      I’m just disappointed in the way it went down, and the ALP’s return to the control of the factions.

  8. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 12:12 PM

    Yeh well the factions do rule. The NSW factions were genuinely shocked not so much by the NSW by election on the weekend but by the internal polling carried out in the previous 2 weeks.

    My 2 neighbours (all 3 of us support the same NRL team) just had an unplanned drink watching our team go around on Foxtel on Sunday afternoon. At first we were just reflecting upon the dilemma that would be facing our Dragons if the Sharks went bust.

    That dilemma being we’d end up with yet a 3rd home ground at Shark Park to add to the Gong and Kogarah.

    After the 3rd Crown Lager in my shed they started to open up. The guy from the NSW Right then took a call from someone called “Bill” which in retrospect was probably Bill Shorten as he said to the Leftie neighbour that “Bill” was in Adelaide canvassing. I didn’t think much about it until by fulltime they were very talkative and they seemed to be getting text messages every 10 minutes.

    So it was a matter of game on in Canberra.

    And as you know…………the Dragons won………….Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !

  9. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 12:37 PM

    In fact reflecting upon it now I’m just coming to realize that as I stood in my shed with a beer in my hand on Sunday afternoon I was actually witnessing a very small microcosm of a major event in Australia’s history.

    And I don’t mean St George’s unstoppable and relentless march to the NRL premiership although equally significant.


  10. June 24, 2010 at 12:50 PM

    St George premiership?

    Have you forgotten the traditional end-of-season choke?

  11. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 4:04 PM

    I have absolutely no idea what you could possibly be implying by that remark. No idea at all.


    Ha……….I’m glad I’m over at some other blogs now. I just had a look at GT and they are back to discussing the RSPT. My eyes glazed over when I saw Shane commenting. For someone in finance he’s surprisingly less informed about accounting than I would expect.

    Plus they are back to comparing tax paid to accounting profits. You cant compare the 2. That’s like comparing a Bentley with a Ferrari. They can be very similar in cornering but totally different in speed. You cant compare them.

    Glad to be outa there. It just goes in circles

    • June 24, 2010 at 4:09 PM

      The Broncos will be there come the finals, despite all the knockers.
      My tips is Penrith or Titans for the premiership.

      I’m a bit of a financial dunce so I’ve got no basis to comment on any of that stuff.

  12. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 4:28 PM

    Broncos will be there. I think Titans and Penrith bleed too many points in defence. I’d say its out of StG, Manly, and Broncos and maybe Parra if they can get their act together. Souths and Tigers should also make top 8

  13. June 24, 2010 at 4:36 PM

    God I hope it’s not Parra…on par with Manly as most hated team.
    Souths would be good…can’t see them winning though.

    Tip for the final SOO?

  14. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 5:24 PM

    The friggin’ Maroons.

    Do you thing I’m stooooopid……………?


  15. The Walrus
    June 24, 2010 at 5:30 PM

    Everybody hates Manly and Storm. St George supporters also hate Canterbury and Cronulla.

    We don’t have an issue with Broncos supporters even though they beat us up twice in 2 GFs. I think it might be because so many Broncos supporters used to have StG as their favourite team before the Broncs came along. Thats why its almost always a full house when the 2 met in Brisbane.

    We don’t have a Book of Feuds like Russell’s team. Although I think every team could do with a Book of Feuds

  16. June 25, 2010 at 8:45 AM

    The classic feud is always good…why do you think I love SOO so much?
    The concept will never pall for me as there’s always so much to dislike about the NSW team…for example them constantly picking meatheads like Gallen and O’Donnell to supposedly “bash” the QLDers out of the game. We all know how well that’s worked out for them haven’t we?
    I could continue but I’ll have an SOO post going up before the game so I can crap on to a greater degree there.

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